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How might the world change, and why?

Photo by British Library on Unsplash
“Civilization’s shortening attention span is mismatched with the pace of environmental problems.”
Stewart Brand
co-founder and editor of the Whole Earth Catalog
What is this approach?

Tracing change over time is about honing our ability to understand the different time scales over which things happen and be more prepared and less disrupted as the future unfolds. We tend to think about the future as a linear extension of what we know. Tomorrow will be like today, but slightly different. Next year will be like this year, but slightly more or less. But the future is dynamic, complex, and full of surprise. Change often comes in disruptive ways, seemingly unpredictable and unprecedented.

Why is it helpful?

Tracing Change Over Time helps expand our thinking about the future by becoming better observers and students of the past. We learn to see change in waves of patterns, cycles, and trends. We get more attuned to toggling between short term possibilities and long term promises, and learn to grapple with – and possibly avert unintended consequences of aspirational ideas in an ever shifting context.

Essential Question:

How does the world change and why? What are the varying rates of change that can be observed?

How can I try it?
  • Future Cringe: What is something that we would look back on from the future and feel embarrassed about? Inspired by New York Times article, “Future Cringe”
  • Consider the forces that shape your life (work, personally, at the communal level). What moves at a relatively slow pace? And what moves quickly?
  • Signal Spotting.
  • Think like a Historian. Think like a Futurist (credit Dr. Minna Ziskind for this activity).
  • Think like a Historian (looking backward) about an issue that matters to you. How did we get to where we are today? What are key ideas or ideologies that let to that event or issue. What were key individuals or groups who had an impact? 
  • Think like a Futurist (looking forward). Imagine the future that you would like to see regarding your issue. Describe this future in writing, art, or in a video. Identify pathways to get to this future. Think about the many ways change can happen (top-down, bottom-up). What kinds of actions are being taken now? What could be done?
Ways to dive deeper:

“Timefulness: How Thinking Like a Geologist Can Help Save the World" by Marcia Bjornerud

How to Future Scott Smith with Madeline Ashby 

The Clock of the Long Now Stewart Brand 

The Long Now Foundation

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